Sunday, June 19, 2005

Dam The People

One of my favorite things to read about these days is the building of the Three Gorges Dam in China. When completed the dam will the world's largest and will free the Chinese people from the perils of the ravenous Yangtze River which has for years been a pox on the lives of those who lived near it.

The dam is not without its doubters. Naysayers ranges from environmentalists who claim the dam will fill up with silt and overflow, to geologists who are concerned that the dam is being built on a fault line to Amnesty International who is upset with how China is "moving" citizens out of the dam area.

They all may be right in their concerns but the one that sticks out to me right now is the issue with how China is treating the peasants living near the dam area. On the outside the government is claiming they are being careful and considerate with moving their citizens but what is happening is not the case. People are being forced out without compensation, some violently, and there is very little that can be done about that.

Or maybe not. The link in the article reads about how peasants are starting to fight back. Despite being outgunned and outmanned they are definitely no longer going quietly into the night.

This does not bode well for the "other China." The China we read all about talks about how the economic growth is something we have never witnessed in our lives. While that maybe true there are in fact two China's. The one we read about and the one that lives in almost medievel conditions. The fact that the second China is rising up and demanding better treatment is alarming to the overall stability of the country. There are a lot more poor people then well off people in the country. If the poor continue to fight back it might become even a bigger issue.

Hawk's View: I think that China's problems with their poorest citizens is the elephant in their room of progress. Yes they have a gifted and industrious society. But they also have what amounts to a new age feudal system and that does not sit well. Look for the issues to get much worse before they begin to get better. And also look for the dam to be an environmental nightmare.

www.threegorgesprobe.org

Friday, June 17, 2005

Senator Byrd Fesses Up

There's a new book coming out by Senator Robert Byrd (D) West Virginia. The book chronicles Byrd's life growing up in the coal mines of his home state and his rise to power in the United States Senate.

To its credit the book discusses Byrd's turn in the Ku Klux Klan during the early 1940s. Byrd even credits his time in the KKK as his catalyst for entering politics. He won his local election to be "Immortal Cyclops" and was known as one of the best recruiters in the state.

When Byrd ran for office in 1946 he was called on to the carpet for this time in the white hood. He claimed to have only spent parts of 1942 through 1943 in the group but there is evidence to suggest he hung around longer.

What really got me on this one was Byrd "spinning" the Klan as a sort of "Southern Rotary Club" and full of upstanding citizens like doctors and lawyers. That may be all well and good but calling the Klan a Southern Rotary club is like calling the Irish Republican Army a recreational paint ball team. It is just all a bunch of nonsense.

Hawk's View: Byrd was in the Klan and why I don't condone that one bit he claims he was not part of any violent acts. There is no evidence to suggest he was and I don't think he ever did. But what is a complete sham is his suggestion that it was more of a social club than a place to promote hate. Byrd's decision to leave the Klan was the moral choice, period. What is not moral is trying to sell us all on how the Klan was "different" back then. No it wasn't and all Byrd had to say was he realized his life was taking him down a path he didn't want to go and that's why he made the change. People can understand that reason, but like The Hawk, they can't understand the reason he gave.

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Our State Fair is Better Than Your State Fair...

I've noticed that my posts lately have been a little serious so I thought I would break that mold and lighten it up a bit today.

The Hawk can't believe it but a right of passage in the midwest is closer than it seems. Yes that's right the State Fair is nearby and as is every year there will be lots of new rides, exhibits and food on display.

Using my connections well within the halls of the state fair committee, The Hawk found out what the committee rejected this year. I can't believe these didn't make it...

Top 5 Rejected Games:
1. Pin-the-tail on the angry Alaskan Timberwolf
2. Name 10,000 lakes in Minnesota
3. Jart tossing
4. Spot the message of the DFL party
5. Amish cage match

Top 5 Rejected Exhibits
1. CarnieGrooming
2. Make your own Spam
3. In search of the reason of how Garrison Keillor became a star
4. The great literary works of Jesse Ventura
5. The terror in the fall: deer hunting from the deer's perspective

Despite the above, our state fair promises to be a rip roarin' fried foood eatin whale of a time. You won't want to miss it...

Hawk

Monday, June 13, 2005

Jacko Moonwalks...

POST UPDATE: As I'm sure you have already heard/read, Michael Jackson moonwalked on all charges today in Santa Barbara. Jacko is now a free man.

While I was not in the jury, I do not see how this guy could get off on every charge (especially the serving of alcohol to a minor which he admitted to doing). In the end his behavior, while bizarre and questionable, was still a case of hearsay. My own opinion is that he did what he was charged with but I did not get to make that call.

While the case against Jackson is over, it is time we start a new campaign against the parents of these children. These sick, disgusting, pathetic people knowingly pimped out their children in a quest for a cash payout. The idea that someone would do that to their own child is beyond all rationale. In a perfect world, the parents would be behind bars.

Along with Jackson...

Sunday, June 12, 2005

The Labor Movement Goes Silent

It's not easy these days being the member of a union. If you're in the automotive world, you're under siege from both GM and Ford to make concessions on your pension and benefit plans. If you're in the airline industry, you have the same worries along with the added benefit that every stinkin' carrier is either in bankruptcy or careening toward it.

America owes a lot to the labor movement (hey, they brought us the weekend). Without them we might still be lorded over by a nation of Montgomery Burns' from The Simpsons. They came along at a time when America needed a voice for the working man (sorry for the sexist writing ladies, but that's who was working back then). The ability to bargain collectively brought the working man into the middle class and provided good lives for millions of American families.

Today the tale is not as cheery. The global economy has commoditized so much of the so-called "skilled labor" that it is difficult for nation's who have a vibrant "blue collar" class to compete. Case in point: A UAW worker makes over $36.00 an hour in pay/benefits while a Chinese worker makes around $1.70 an hour. That is a shocking disparity.

In fact it makes you wonder how we can even save the cause for the working stiff. What good is the ability to bargain collectively when you can be outsourced for amazing cost savings?

As a result unions are finding themselves under immense pressure not just from management to give concessions but from competition. In fact, Northwest Airlines is reportedly putting out ads on Monster.com to for flight attendents (needed in case of a strike). That same airline is toying with the idea of outsourcing mechanic work overseas to save money as well.

All of this adds up to critical diagnosis for America's trade unions. What can they do to save themselves and their cause?

Hawk's View: Never underestimate an American with his/her back against the wall. Unions came about because of unfair treatment and they can reinvent themselves again using that same mentality. I don't pretend to have the answer, although I think a tighter union/management partnership with the union having more ownership of the company than they do now could help, but somebody needs to be this centuries John L. Lewis. Without leadership that promotes competition, instead of protecting, is at least a start in the road to winning the day. If the trade unions continue their stance of protectionism they will go the way of the dodo.

Friday, June 10, 2005

NYC Drops the Baton on The Olympics

On Wenesday New York saw its quest for the Olympics come to a crashing halt. The coveted West Side Stadium project (championed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg) was shot down by a special committee. The Stadum was the catalyst in New York's 2012 Olympic bid. It was also to be used for the New York Jets football team as well as host the 2010 Super Bowl.

Now that is all over. While The Hawk feels that New York losing the Olympics is really not a huge deal (they're New York, they don't need the extra tourism dollars) he does see it as a sign as to how much the "machine" politics of major urban areas has changed over the years.

For decades towns like New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, etc were run by political machines that were essentially city-state fiefdoms. The mayors in these towns could make anything happen and were seen almost as urban royalty. Heck, the Daley Dynasty in Chicago even delivered the 1960 election for John Kennedy.

These machines could make any miracle happen. If a town like New York wanted to host the Olympics in the 1950s, it would have been done. A stadium would have been built and the city would be cheering its construction.

Clearly these days are over. NYC's inability to get a stadium done was one of the final nails in the coffin of machine politics. The current climate does not allow for fiefdoms to flourish. 24/7 media and proliferation of the Internet allow the little guy to get their message out to the masses. Mobilization is easier and getting that message out is a snap. The challenges New York faced in this stadium battle were probably no different than decades past, except the opponents were now able to get their message out.

Now the US is out of the running for 2012 (we wouldn't have gotten it anyway, Paris was clearly the leader in the clubhouse). Mayor Bloomberg feels NYC let down the country and that New York is no longer a place where "things can get done."

Hawk's View: The Mayor's line of thinking is simply misguided. The city voted down the stadium because it was a bad business deal and they in turn shot down the Olympics because having them would probably be a detriment to the city. The Mayor's real reason for being despondent over the stadium defeat should be rooted in the fact that machine politics can no longer get whatever it wants. While that's bad for the Mayor it is good for America. We call that Democracy...

Thursday, June 09, 2005

Jackson Faces the Man in the Mirror

As a rule I try to avoid writing about all things Hollywood for several reasons. One, I find that as an industry it is incredibly overrated and two, I find the players involved to be wholly shallow, self-centered and not the least bit interesting.

But I make an exception to this when the topic comes to Michael Jackson. Yes, like most Americans, Jacko has become a bit of a tragic figure to me. The trial that he is currently mired in is for charges that, if true, are incredibly heinous and unacceptable. However that trial is not why I am writing today.

I'm writing because I am wondering aloud how one man can be in such a dire financial situation after making so much money. Jackson was THE ultimate talent of the early 80's racking up impressive sales and expanding his own personal brand into an international sensation.

But the success clearly was not a tonic for Jackson's main issue: his feeling of self loathing. Despite fame, fortune and adulation, Jackson went from a talented legendary talent into a walking freakshow. Along the way he made a vast fortune and now appears to have lost it all.

In yesterday's Wall Street Journal it was reported that Jacko is on the hook for $270M in loans. His situation is so dire that he will probably have to sell some or all of his 50% share in Sony/ATV music (a music catalog that includes most of The Beatles recordings).

How a man could fall this far, spend so much money is beyond the thought process of rational humans. However that is the point in all of this. Jackson is not rational. He's not because he was forced into Showbiz at a young age by an overbearing father and became the family breadwinner. Once he finally broke free of the family in the late 70's and found success, his issues with his childhood rose to the surface and he started his sad pathetic journey to the life he has today.

Now he's broke and owes more money than a third world government. His immense talent wasted, his life a shambles. If convicted Jackson will lose everything (and still might even if acquitted).

Hawk's View: The sad case of Jackson is yet another of celebrity gone bad. It is a reminder of how superficialness in life tends to lead to a life that is unfulfilling. I don't feel sorry for Jackson for what he has become. However, I do feel that his fall from grace is a lesson to all of us.

Sunday, June 05, 2005

NightmareWorks Faces a New Ogre: Wall Street

On Friday, Dreamworks SKG (the brainchild of Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg) got its first taste of life as a public company: they got sued.

Yes, apparently those pesky shareholders who bought into the vision of the three amigos were a bit miffed by Dreamworks huge quarterly profit miss. The miss was due to the major wiff job Shrek 2 had in the DVD market.

OK, in fairness I should restate that last sentence. The miss was due to Dreamworks horrific forecasting and expecations of Shrek 2 in the DVD market. The video itself did not do too poorly, it was the expectations that Katzenberg and team led their shareholders to believe that was the problem. To sum it up, here's what happened...

1. Katzenberg travels all over the world promoting that Shrek 2 will be bigger than cold fusion
2. Dreamworks floods the market with copies of the movie
3. The movie debuts in the DVD market to huge numbers (Katzenberg figures he'll get 33% of total sales in the first week)
4. Ooops, turns out new titles are burning out much faster (around 50% of sales are done in the first week). Note to Jeffrey: pick up a Video Business magazine once in a while, even I knew that one.
5. Because of their inability to understand the DVD market as it actually is (versus how they want it) Dreamworks is flooded with returns.
6. The returns and lack of sales equal a huge miss in profit expectations (25% miss). Stock takes a dive.
7. Dreamworks gets sued.

OK, here's the deal, yes businesses make mistakes, but what they don't do is forget to WARN Wall Street about a potential miss. Dreamworks screwed up big time by not letting The Street know what was going on with Shrek 2. The Street found out when the rest of us in the Proletariot did (that's never good) and responded accordingly.

Shareholders, feeling that past guidance given by management was clearly misguided, got the shaft and responded in the only way they know how: via a class action lawsuit.

Hawk's View: The bottom line is Katzenberg's hubris got in the way. This is no longer a private company. The public has a huge interest and a right to know what is going on. Dreamworks board and CEO should have taken a more conservative approach in announcing the expectations of Shrek. Katzenberg is an animator and creator at heart. He should not be the face of the company when it comes to giving a financial view to The Street. Look for current CEO Richard Enrico to take a bigger role in the future and look for Dreamworks to write a check to the angry shareholders.

Friday, June 03, 2005

Air War Update

Updated Post:
My last post dealt with the current Air War going on between Airbus and Boeing. I wrote how Airbus left Boeing in the dust because of their drive toward gaining market share and taking advantage of Boeing's lackadaisical approach to aircraft building.

Why I don't change my thoughts, it is interesting to note the Airbus and their new plane, the A380, is having problems. The A380 is a skyscraper on its side that flies as well. The mongo plane was hailed by many as the next frontier of jet travel. It was backed by several orders from airlines throughout the globe.

Turns out the A380 has found turbulence. The Australian airline Qantas announced today that its 12 jet order will be delayed for as long as six months. Apparently Qantas is not the only one having problems as other airlines are reporting similar delays (including Air France, Emirates and Singapore Air). All of this could force Airbus to pay exorbinant penalties for missing deadlines.

Meanwhile, Boeing is putting pressure on them with their answer to the A380, the 787 Dreamliner. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Hawk

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Air War

One of the more interesting issues going on in the world of business and politics today is the upcoming Boeing/Airbus case to be heard in front of the WTO.

To sum it up the US is filing a grievance against EADS (Airbus' owner) for significant government subsidies given by the various European governments that back EADS. The US contends this is unfair labor practice and is crying foul.

All of that would be fine and dandy except Boeing spends as much time in the subsidy lunch line as their European competition. The state of Washington has essentially become Boeing own personal credit card, doling out billions in "indirect"grants to the state's largest employer.

The problem here is twofold: lack of competition and Boeing falling asleep at the wheel in the commercial jet business. The first one is hard to fix. The jet business is expensive and competitors fled the market long ago for more profitable business. The barrier to entry is high and I don't see that changing any time soon.

However on the second issue, Boeing has no one to blame for their troubles than themselves. Despite having a virtual lock on the commercial jet business for decades the company got fat and happy and took it's eye off the prize (think KMart only in the jet business). Along the way, poor management (first by Phil Condit and then by Harry Stonecipher) diversified Boeing away from its bread and butter and into other more "sexy" businesses. The avalanche began shortly after former CEO Condit moved Boeing out of Seattle to Chicago (a move many believe was done to distance the company from its airplane heritage).

Turns out Boeing was much better at building planes than doing any of its other projects the problem is by the time they realized that they were woefully behind in R&D and had taken an eye off of their customers. Now they are running to catch up.

Hawk's View: The WTO case is a joke. This is a duopoly with the US in one corner and the EU in the other. Boeing doesn't lose out because of subsidies, they lose out because of poor business decisions. Look for the US (not a fan favorite in the world today) to get whipped at the WTO.

Clog Stomp

Post Update:
As expected the Dutch slam dunked the EU Constitution into a canal in downtown Amsterdam. The loss was worse than the one in France and will probably kickoff a time of "reflection" in the EU parliament. The Brits take over the rotating presidency later this Summer and will attempt to get the healing process started. Should be interesting...

Hawk