Sunday, January 01, 2006

AT&T's Next Move?

Apparently, buying everything they can get their hands on over the past few years has not deterred AT&T (formerly SBC, formerly Southwester Bell, formerly, well, AT&T). Cnn.com reports a deal may be in the works for Echostar Communications (AKA Dish Network).

It is hard to believe that Echostar Chairman Charlie Ergen would want to sell out fully. He's too competitive, but a deal where retains control over the operations could become palatable as he attempts to take Dish to the next competitive arena: High Definition TV service.

The upside of this for AT&T is that they would be in the video business from day one and would not have to roll out an expensive fiber optic service as other telcos (Verizon, BellSouth) are planning. Also, AT&T and Dish have been working together for a couple of years selling bundled services.

The downside of the deal is AT&T is still swallowing two huge acquisitions and the idea of taking on another may make investors a little queezy. Never underestimate Chairman Edward Whitacre's zeal for making a deal and with The Chairman retiring in two years he may well want to make one big huge score before riding off to the nearest Texas Tech University football game (he's a big alum and, funny, Tech's stadium is named Jones AT&T Stadium).

Hawk's View:
If AT&T wants to make another acquisition the logical one is to by BellSouth. BellSouth owns 40% of Cingular (with AT&T owning the other 60%). Buying BellSouth would not only give Whitacre's gang wider distribution but it would give them full control over Cingular. However, that acquisition still does not get AT&T in the TV game. In the end the question is whether or not Whitacre wants his final score to be wireless or TV. Only he knows but we are soon to find out.

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