On Saturday France gave the EU the big FU when they voted down ratifying the EU treaty. The French (the 10th member to vote and the first to reject it) were unified from both sides of the political spectrum: they hated the idea of a EU constitution. The end result was a humiliating defeat for French premier Jacques Chirac, who had staked much of his political future on a oui' vote.
The no vote by the French just hastened the death of the EU contstitution. The Dutch (scheduled to vote later this week) would have given it a clog stomp anyway, so the demise of the constitution does not fall squarely at the feet of our beret wearing friends.
What it does is underscore a European wide problem. The now 25 member EU is, essentially, two organizations. You have the haves (Italy, Great Britain, France, etc) and the extremely have-nots (Estonia, Latvia, Greece). The problem is that the haves seemingly have less lately. Let's take a roll call to see how well they are doing...
Great Britain: Yes, Tony Blair won his election. But his party got slammed by the Tories and there is little doubt that he will not serve all of his third term. Immigration continues to be a hot topic as well as issues around the educational system. Plus, Great Britain continues to struggle to find its leadership role in the world. They are not the US and they don't have enough support in the EU. Plus, the new Queen to-be looks more like a King.
Italy: Now in their 175th government since WWII, the Italians seem to be struggling with this whole non-sensical idea of "globalization." Italian industry remains mostly small with the bigger firms squarely in bed with the government (I'm talking about you, FIAT). In addition, the country is run by a man who controls not just the government TV stations but the private ones as well (think Ruper Murdoch crossed by Ted Turner). Unemployment is up, morale is down and the new Pope isn't even Italian.
Germany: The fun loving Germans are swimming in high unemployment, an immigration problem and a rash of angry youth (an idea that history tells us should make us all nervous). That coupled with the fact they have one of the world's strongest and toughest trade unions (IG Metall) has made life less fun for the folks in Berlin. Regional elections slated for later this week may turn out the ruling Social Democrat party. But, hey, at least we're not...
France: Yes our beret wearing, wine swilling friends are having a rough go. As in everywhere else in Europe immigration is a huge problem and a divisive topic (especially toward Muslim immigrants). The country continues to try to balance its lifestyle needs (35 hour work weeks) with the realities of a global economy. Plus they have pushed to be THE leader in the EU but the bouncing of the EU constitution has soiled that dream.
Spain: Spain's biggest problem seems to be no one wants to be Spanish. Both the Basque region and the Catalonia region want more autonomy and less interference from Madrid. The government has to balance those needs while still keeping the country together.
Hawk's View: OK, they voted down the constitution but the EU is still the right way to go. Most of Europe's individual country problems are the same (immigration, unemployment, etc) and by sticking together they have a shot at solving them peacefully. They have already accomplished a common currency and (essentially) borderless nations. Most thought that would never happened but they pulled it off. They need to remember that and stay the course. Take the French rejection as a sign that the whole continent is not yet ready for a USA of Europe as Churchill desired. They need to use the rejection as motivation to understand what the citizens of Europe want and how its leaders can get it there together.
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